Items

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  Chapter 17: Decision-Making Options for Managing Risk

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  Harnessing soil carbon sequestration to address climate change challenges in agriculture

  Elevating levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily driven by the burning of fossil fuels, combustion of organic matter, and unsustainable land practices, have amplified global concerns regarding climate change. The industrial revolution has propelled the rise in CO2 emissions, leading to anticipated increases in concentrations and alterations in CO2 sequestration within agricultural soils. Land use alterations, encompassing deforestation, biomass burning, changes in agricultural conditions, drainage of natural wetlands, and incorrect soil management practices, have further amplified these emissions. Moreover, the reduction of soil organic carbon (SOC), an outcome of soil degradation and mismanagement, has intensified atmospheric CO2 levels. However, by implementing state-of-the-art land application and contemporary management systems in agriculture, there's potential to slow the rate of CO2 emissions. The restoration of depleted SOC is possible through various strategies, such as converting marginal lands into restorative uses, promoting reduced or zero-tillage practices combined with cover or residue crops, and implementing nutrient cycling via composting, manure application, and other sustainable soil and water management techniques. Long-term soil carbon sequestration is increasingly being viewed as a comprehensive strategy to combat climate change. By rejuvenating depleted soils, enhancing biomass production, purifying surface and groundwater, and offsetting CO2 emissions from fossil fuels, soil carbon sequestration can serve as a holistic and effective approach for mitigating current climatic changes. Adoption of these innovative techniques is crucial in managing the challenges imposed by recent environmental changes, positioning soil carbon sequestration as a promising solution. This review aims to explore the potential methods of mitigating climate change through the implementation of soil carbon sequestration strategies.
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  A marginal abatement cost curve for climate change mitigation by additional carbon storage in French agricultural land

  Following the Paris agreement in 2015, the European Union (EU) set a carbon neutrality objective by 2050, and so did France. The French agricultural sector can contribute as a carbon sink through carbon storage in biomass and soil, in addition to reducing GHG emissions. The objective of this study is to quantitatively assess the additional storage potential and cost of a set of eight carbon-storing practices. The impacts of these agricultural practices on soil organic carbon storage and crop production are assessed at a very fine spatial scale, using crop and grassland models. The associated area base, GHG budget, and implementation costs are assessed and aggregated at the region level. The economic model BANCO uses this information to derive the marginal abatement cost curve for France and identify the combination of carbon storing practices that minimizes the total cost of achieving a given national net GHG mitigation target. We find that a substantial amount of carbon, 36.2 to 52.9 MtCO2e yr−1, can be stored in soil and biomass for reasonable carbon prices of 55 and 250 € tCO2e−1, respectively (corresponding to current and 2030 French carbon value for climate action), mainly by developing agroforestry and hedges, generalising cover crops, and introducing or extending temporary grasslands in crop sequences. This finding questions the 3–5 times lower target of 10 MtCO2e.yr−1 retained for the agricultural carbon sink by the French climate neutrality strategy. Overall, this would decrease total French GHG emissions by 9.2–13.8%, respectively (reference year 2019).
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  Carbon for soils, not soils for carbon

  The role of soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration as a ‘win-win’ solution to both climate change and food insecurity receives an increasing promotion. The opportunity may be too good to be missed! Yet the tremendous complexity of the two issues at stake calls for a detailed and nuanced examination of any potential solution, no matter how appealing. Here, we critically re-examine the benefits of global SOC sequestration strategies on both climate change mitigation and food production. While estimated contributions of SOC sequestration to climate change vary, almost none take SOC saturation into account. Here, we show that including saturation in estimations decreases any potential contribution of SOC sequestration to climate change mitigation by 53%–81% towards 2100. In addition, reviewing more than 21 meta-analyses, we found that observed yield effects of increasing SOC are inconsistent, ranging from negative to neutral to positive. We find that the promise of a win-win outcome is confirmed only when specific land management practices are applied under specific conditions. Therefore, we argue that the existing knowledge base does not justify the current trend to set global agendas focusing first and foremost on SOC sequestration. Away from climate-smart soils, we need a shift towards soil-smart agriculture, adaptative and adapted to each local context, and where multiple soil functions are quantified concurrently. Only such comprehensive assessments will allow synergies for land sustainability to be maximised and agronomic requirements for food security to be fulfilled. This implies moving away from global targets for SOC in agricultural soils. SOC sequestration may occur along this pathway and contribute to climate change mitigation and should be regarded as a co-benefit.
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  Carbon storage in soils

  Soils are a pivotal component in the global carbon cycle, while carbon storage in soils is a natural phenomenon involving organic carbon. Maintaining or increasing soil carbon levels is beneficial for many ecosystem services. Soil carbon is also a soil condition indicator and a key focus of several Sustainable Development Goals. This chapter describes the forms of carbon in soils, the quantification of carbon stocks and storage, the processes underlying the heterogeneous distribution of carbon stocks across the planet and their dynamics, land-use changes and practices that affect soil carbon stocks, as well as the socioeconomic benefits of soil carbon storage.
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  Soil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction

  Numerical models are crucial to understand and/or predict past and future soil organic carbon dynamics. For those models aiming at prediction, validation is a critical step to gain confidence in projections. With a comprehensive review of ~250 models, we assess how models are validated depending on their objectives and features, discuss how validation of predictive models can be improved. We find a critical lack of independent validation using observed time series. Conducting such validations should be a priority to improve the model reliability. Approximately 60% of the models we analysed are not designed for predictions, but rather for conceptual understanding of soil processes. These models provide important insights by identifying key processes and alternative formalisms that can be relevant for predictive models. We argue that combining independent validation based on observed time series and improved information flow between predictive and conceptual models will increase reliability in predictions.
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  Soil organic carbon sequestration and modeling under conservation tillage and cropping systems in a rainfed agriculture

  Conservation agriculture is a well-established method for promoting carbon sequestration and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but little is known about how it affects subtropical dryland farming systems. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential of conservation agriculture in Pakistan's subtropical dryland to reduce atmospheric CO2 enrichment and alter soil organic carbon fractions. In a field experiment, fallow-wheat (farmers' practice) and the conservation tillage methods minimum tillage (MT), reduced tillage (RT), and zero tillage (ZT) were compared to conventional tillage (CT) in the main plots and the cropping systems sorghum-wheat (S-W) and mungbean-wheat (M-W) to fallow-wheat (F-W) in the sub-plots. Multiple assessments taken over a two-year period revealed that CT plots lacked greater soil organic carbon and its fractions than ZT and RT plots. In comparison to CT, ZT, and RT exhibited higher average total organic carbon (TOC), microbial biomass carbon (MBC), particulate organic carbon (POC), and mineral-associated organic carbon (MOC) concentrations, respectively, of 1.43% and 1.31%, 4.61% and 2.83%, 2.42% and 1.97%, and 1.66% and 1.76%. In comparison to the S-W cropping system, the F-W and M-W cropping systems showed increased MBC and MOC, but POC and TOC were little impacted. The maximum TOC (0.589% and 0.589%), MBC (0.021% and 0.021%), POC (0.195% and 0.192%), and MOC (0.489% and 0.485%) were found in the combinations of ZT with F-W and M-W. Regardless of the cropping systems, cumulative CO2 flow was lowest in ZT plots compared to the other tillage techniques. The CENTURY model confirmed that the use of continuous tillage is a major threat to both soil fertility and production. The study, therefore, concludes that ZT and RT systems in particular are potential possibilities for carbon sequestration in subtropical dryland soils for CO2 reduction.
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  Soil organic carbon sequestration in agricultural long-term field experiments as derived from particulate and mineral-associated organic matter

  Soil organic matter (SOM) is indispensable for soil health and, in the context of climate change, is considered a significant CO2 sink. Improving agricultural management to increase long-term soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks for mitigating climate change requires tools that estimate short and long-cycling SOM pools. In this study, we analyzed changes in fast-cycling particulate organic matter (POM) and slow-cycling mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) induced by common management practices, i.e., fertilization and crop rotation in topsoils from 25 Central European long-term field experiments. When relating MAOM-C contents to recent MAOM-C saturation levels, estimated sequestration potentials were only met in coarse-textured soils under appropriate agricultural management or fine-textured soils under extreme organic fertilization. Soil texture, organic fertilization, and below-ground OC inputs through root exudates and root biomass were decisive for estimating MAOM-C, allowing for calibration of a mixed-effects model (Nakagawa’s: marginal R2m = 0.6, conditional R2c = 0.89). While the models containing soil texture and organic fertilization parameters can be validated and generalized (R2 = 0.43), the below-ground OC input predictor substantially decreases the generalizability of the validated models (R2 = 0.14). According to quantile regression models, we estimate the average difference in MAOM-C concentration between well-managed and control site (without organic fertilization) topsoils to 4.1 mg g−1 soil. In dependence on the soil bulk density, this amounts to 1.38 – 1.84 t ha−1 MAOM-C stocks or 5.06 – 10.1 t ha−1 CO2-equivalents. POM-C was difficult to predict (R2 = 0.28), presumably due to strong POM dynamics. The POM-C / MAOM-C ratio can inform on the effects of agricultural practices in before/after management change comparisons. Under increasing SOC concentration, an increasing POM-C / MAOM-C ratio indicates that the effects of organic fertilization do not transfer to real effects on long-term SOC sequestration. Because MAOM-C depends on soil texture, this ratio is also a covariate of soil texture, limiting it for comparisons between sites with different textures. However, our data indicate that agricultural long-term field experiment soils constantly approximate MAOM-C saturation when the POM-C/MAOM-C ratio is >0.35. This ratio might be used as a management goal to prevent organic over-fertilization and N loss, especially on coarse-textured soils. Thereby, the POM-C / MAOM-C ratio can help to optimize SOC management and sequestration on agricultural soils and support climate change mitigation strategies in Central Europe.
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  Storage of soil carbon is not sequestration: Straightforward graphical visualization of their basic differences

  Over the last few years, in the literature on the incorporation of crop residues in agricultural fields to mitigate climate change, there has been a growing tendency to no longer distinguish between the storage and the sequestration of organic carbon in soils. Applying, apparently for the first time, a simple “back-of-the-envelope” calculation to available mineralization kinetics data, we show graphically that there are fundamental differences, both quantitatively and qualitatively, between the two concepts of storage and sequestration. To avoid confusion, they should therefore never be used interchangeably, especially when addressing farmers and policy makers. Several simplifying assumptions made in the calculations, and about which a considerable lack of understanding persists, mean that at this stage, the graphical visualization we obtained is likely to still be optimistic in terms of the already low (10%) efficacy of sequestering carbon in soils. Several research avenues are outlined to deepen our grasp of the processes involved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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  Global meta-analysis of the relationship between soil organic matter and crop yields

  Resilient, productive soils are necessary to sustainably intensify agriculture to increase yields while minimizing environmental harm. To conserve and regenerate productive soils, the need to maintain and build soil organic matter (SOM) has received considerable attention. Although SOM is considered key to soil health, its relationship with yield is contested because of local-scale differences in soils, climate, and farming systems. There is a need to quantify this relationship to set a general framework for how soil management could potentially contribute to the goals of sustainable intensification. We developed a quantitative model exploring how SOM relates to crop yield potential of maize and wheat in light of co-varying factors of management, soil type, and climate. We found that yields of these two crops are on average greater with higher concentrations of SOC (soil organic carbon). However, yield increases level off at ∼2 % SOC. Nevertheless, approximately two-thirds of the world's cultivated maize and wheat lands currently have SOC contents of less than 2 %. Using this regression relationship developed from published empirical data, we then estimated how an increase in SOC concentrations up to regionally specific targets could potentially help reduce reliance on nitrogen (N) fertilizer and help close global yield gaps. Potential N fertilizer reductions associated with increasing SOC amount to 7 % and 5 % of global N fertilizer inputs across maize and wheat fields, respectively. Potential yield increases of 10±11 % (mean ± SD) for maize and 23±37 % for wheat amount to 32 % of the projected yield gap for maize and 60 % of that for wheat. Our analysis provides a global-level prediction for relating SOC to crop yields. Further work employing similar approaches to regional and local data, coupled with experimental work to disentangle causative effects of SOC on yield and vice versa, is needed to provide practical prescriptions to incentivize soil management for sustainable intensification.
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  Twenty percent of agricultural management effects on organic carbon stocks occur in subsoils – Results of ten long-term experiments

  Agricultural management can influence soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and thus may contribute to carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation. The soil depth to which agricultural management practices affect SOC is uncertain. Soil depth may have an important bearing on soil carbon dynamics, so it is important to consider depth effects to capture fully changes in SOC stocks. This applies in particular to the evaluation of carbon farming measures, which are becoming increasingly important due to climate change. We sampled and analysed the upper metre of mineral cropland soils from ten long-term experiments (LTEs) in Germany to quantify depth-specific effects on SOC stocks of common agricultural management practices: mineral nitrogen (N) fertilisation, a combination of N, phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) fertilisation, irrigation, a crop rotation with preceding crops (pre-crops), straw incorporation, application of farmyard manure (FYM), liming, and reduced tillage. In addition, the effects of soil compaction on SOC stocks were examined as a negative side effect of agricultural management. Results showed that 19 ± 3 % of total management effects on SOC stocks were found in the upper subsoil (30–50 cm) and 3 ± 4 % in the lower subsoil (50–100 cm), including all agricultural management practices with significant topsoil SOC effects, while 79 ± 7 % of management effects were in the topsoil (0–30 cm). Nitrogen and NPK fertilisation were the treatments that had the greatest effect on subsoil organic carbon (OC) stocks, followed by irrigation, FYM application and straw incorporation. Sampling down to a depth of 50 cm resulted in significantly higher SOC effects than when considering topsoil only. A crop rotation with pre-crops, liming, reduced tillage and soil compaction did not significantly affect SOC stocks at any depth increment. Since approximately 20 % of the impact of agricultural management on SOC stocks occurs in the subsoil, we recommend soil monitoring programs and carbon farming schemes extend their standard soil sampling down to 50 cm depth to capture fully agricultural management effects on SOC.
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  A simple soil organic carbon level metric beyond the organic carbon-to-clay ratio

  Soil is a precious and non-renewable resource that is under increasing pressure and the development of indicators to monitor its state is pivotal. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for key physical, chemical and biological soil properties and thus a central indicator of soil quality and soil health. The content of SOC is driven by many abiotic factors, such as texture and climate, and is therefore strongly site-specific, which complicates, for example, the search for appropriate threshold values to differentiate healthy from less healthy soils. The SOC:clay ratio has been introduced as a normalized SOC level metric to indicate soils' structural condition, with classes ranging from degraded (<1:13) to very good (>1:8). This study applied the ratio to 2958 topsoils (0–30 cm) in the German Agricultural Soil Inventory and showed that it is not a suitable SOC level metric since strongly biased, misleading and partly insensitive to SOC changes. The proportion of soils with SOC levels classified as degraded increased exponentially with clay content, indicating the indicator's overly strong clay dependence. Thus, 94% of all Chernozems, which are known to have elevated SOC contents and a favourable soil structure, were found to have either degraded (61%) or moderate (33%) normalized SOC levels. The ratio between actual and expected SOC (SOC:SOCexp) is proposed as an easy-to-use alternative where expected SOC is derived from a regression between SOC and clay content. This ratio allows a simple but unbiased estimate of the clay-normalized SOC level. The quartiles of this ratio were used to derive threshold values to divide the dataset into the classes degraded, moderate, good and very good. These classes were clearly linked to bulk volume (inverse of bulk density) as an important structural parameter, which was not the case for classes based on the SOC:clay ratio. Therefore, SOC:SOCexp and its temporal dynamic are proposed for limited areas such as regions, states or pedoclimatic zones, for example, in a soil health monitoring context; further testing is, however, recommended.
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  Soil organic carbon stocks potentially at risk of decline with organic farming expansion

  Organic farming is often considered a strategy that increases croplands’ soil organic carbon (SOC) stock. However, organic farms currently occupy only a small fraction of cropland, and it is unclear how the full-scale expansion of organic farming will impact soil carbon inputs and SOC stocks. Here we use a spatially explicit biogeochemical model to show that the complete conversion of global cropland to organic farming without the use of cover crops and plant residue (normative scenario) will result in a 40% reduction of global soil carbon input and 9% decline in SOC stock. An optimal organic scenario that supports widespread cover cropping and enhanced residue recycling will reduce global soil carbon input by 31%, and SOC can be preserved after 20 yr following conversion to organic farming. These results suggest that expanding organic farming might reduce the potential for soil carbon sequestration unless appropriate farming practices are implemented.
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  Global option space for organic agriculture is delimited by nitrogen availability

  Organic agriculture is widely accepted as a strategy to reduce the environmental impacts of food production and help achieve global climate and biodiversity targets. However, studies concluding that organic farming could satisfy global food demand have overlooked the key role that nitrogen plays in sustaining crop yields. Using a spatially explicit biophysical optimization model that accounts for crop growth nitrogen requirements, we show that, in the absence of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, the production gap between organic and conventional agriculture increases as organic agriculture expands globally (with organic producing 36% less food for human consumption than conventional in a fully organic world). Yet, by targeting both food supply (via a redesign of the livestock sector) and demand (by reducing average per capita caloric intake), public policies could support a transition towards organic agriculture in 40–60% of the global agricultural area even under current nitrogen limitations thus helping to achieve important environmental and health benefits.
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  Multi-criteria spatialization of soil organic carbon sequestration potential from agricultural intensification in Senegal

  On the eve of the 15th climate negotiations conference in Copenhagen, the pressure to assess all climate mitigation options is mounting. In this study, a bio-physic model and a socio-economic model were designed and coupled to assess the carbon sequestration potential of agricultural intensification in Senegal. The biophysical model is a multiple linear regression, calibrated and tested on a dataset of long-term agricultural trials established in West Africa. The socio-economic model integrates both financial and environmental costs related to considered practice changes. Both models are spatially explicit and the resulting spatial patterns were computed and displayed over Senegal with a geographic information system. The national potential from large-scale intensification was assessed at 0.65–0.83 MtC. With regards to local-scaled intensification as local projects, the most profitable areas were identified in agricultural expansion regions (especially Casamance), while the areas that meet the current financial additionality criteria of the Clean Development Mechanism were located in the northern part of the Peanut Basin. Using the current relevant mode of carbon valuation (Certified Emission Reductions), environmental benefits are small compared to financial benefits. This picture is radically changed if “avoided deforestation”, a likely consequence of agricultural intensification, is accounted for as the greenhouse gases sink capacity of projects increases by an average of a hundred-fold over Senegal.
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  Priority science can accelerate agroforestry as a natural climate solution

  The expansion of agroforestry could provide substantial climate change mitigation (up to 0.31 Pg C yr−1), comparable to other prominent natural climate solutions such as reforestation. Yet, climate-focused agroforestry efforts grapple with ambiguity about which agroforestry actions provide mitigation, uncertainty about the magnitude of that mitigation and inability to reliably track progress. In this Perspective, we define agroforestry as a natural climate solution, discuss current understanding of the controls on farm-scale mitigation potential and highlight recent innovation on emergent, high-resolution remote sensing methods to enable detection, measurement and monitoring. We also assess the status of agroforestry in the context of global climate ambitions, highlighting regions of underappreciated expansion opportunity and identifying priorities for policy and praxis.
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  Effects and mechanism of microplastics on organic carbon and nitrogen cycling in agricultural soil: a review

  At present, microplastics (MPs) are a kind of emerging pollutants of concern in the environment, and have a wide and far-reaching impact on terrestrial ecosystems. This paper summarizes the latest research progress of the impact of MPs pollution on the biogeochemical cycle of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N), and summarizes the current situation of MPs pollution in agricultural soil. On the basis of summarizing the effects of MPs on soil physicochemical properties, soil microorganisms, and soil plants and animals, this paper focuses on how soil MPs affect the C and N cycles by changing these factors. MPs can alter organic matter degradation and C and N cycles by changing the soil physicochemical properties, as well as the soil microbial and enzymatic activities. MPs may alter plants’ nutrient uptake processes, which in turn affects the ability of plants to photosynthesize and absorb C and N elements. MPs can affect the survival rate, the growth rate, and intestinal injury of soil animals, therefore indirectly affecting the soil C and N cycles. At the same time, this paper compares the different effects of conventional plastics and biodegradable plastics on soil, and looks forward to the current research deficiencies and the future research directions of ecotoxicology of MPs on C and N cycle.
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  Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)

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  Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (AFOLU)

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  Rates of soil organic carbon change in cultivated and afforested sandy soils

  Considerable advances have been made in the assessment and mapping of soil organic carbon stocks, but rates of change in carbon stocks remain to be quantified for many soils and ecosystems. We sampled 145 sandy soils (mostly Psamments) under permanent cultivation and forest. We used aerial imagery to determine the period of cultivation and to calculate changes in soil organic carbon stocks. Topsoil organic carbon stocks, including the A and O horizons, were highest in soils under forest which were never cultivated (36 Mg C ha−1) and lowest in soils under red pine with prior cultivation (31 Mg C ha−1). Average soil organic carbon stocks of the A horizons of cultivated soils were 33 Mg C ha−1. To meet the 4 per 1000 international initiative, these soils need to achieve a soil organic carbon sequestration rate of 0.1 Mg C ha−1 yr−1. A mean rate of change of −0.16 Mg C ha−1 year−1 was found. The A horizon thickness increased under cultivation, but soil organic carbon concentrations decreased leading to reduced soil organic carbon stocks. The decline in soil organic carbon stock could be explained by an increased rate of organic matter decomposition due to tillage, irrigation, nitrogen applications, and lower clay and silt contents. After about 70 years of afforestation with red pine, soil organic carbon stocks increased. The O horizon accrued organic carbon at a rate of +0.19 Mg ha−1 yr−1, but soil organic carbon stocks were lower in the A horizon compared to cultivated soils. Afforestation of abandoned cultivated fields maintained soil organic carbon in the A horizon and gained organic carbon in the O horizon, but the soil organic carbon stocks were below soils under forest which were never cultivated.
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  The misconception of soil organic carbon sequestration notion: when do we achieve climate benefit?

  Soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration is a key function of natural and semi-natural ecosystems. Restoring this property in terrestrial ecosystems has become central to the EU's climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, SOC sequestration is a widely misunderstood concept. The different methodological approaches used to investigate and compare SOC stock under sustainable agricultural practices play a key role in reinforcing misconceptions about this complex process. This commentary paper aims not only to provide a clear definition of SOC sequestration, but also to interpret the results that can be obtained for SOC stock change estimation using the SOC stock difference and the pair comparison methods, as well as to identify the soil carbon-related processes that achieve climate mitigation. SOC sequestration can be defined as the progressive increase in a site's SOC stock compared to pre-intervention via a net depletion and transfer of atmospheric CO2 into the soil, where it is retained as soil organic matter (SOM), by plants, plant residues or other organic solids such as the material derived from the organic fraction of farming solid waste, which can be used as a fertilizer (e.g., manure, compost, biochar, digestate), and that is produced or derived from that land-unit. To date the most appropriate way to determine if a land unit's soil is a sink or rather a source of atmospheric CO2 is to implement the SOC stock difference method, provided the non-occurrence of carbon exchange between ecosystems.
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  Navigating the continuum between adaptation and maladaptation

  Adaptation is increasing across all sectors globally. Yet, the effectiveness of adaptation is inadequate, and examples of maladaptation are increasing. To reduce the risk of maladaptation, we propose the framework, Navigating the Adaptation–Maladaptation continuum (NAM). This framework is composed of six criteria relating to outcomes of adaptation for ecosystems, the climate (greenhouse gases emissions) and social systems (transformational potential) as well as equity-related outcomes for low-income populations, women/girls and marginalized ethnic groups. We apply the NAM framework to a set of representative adaptation options showing that considerable variation exists in the potential for adaptation or the risk of maladaptation. We suggest that decision-makers assess adaptation interventions against the NAM framework criteria and prioritize responses that reduce the risk of maladaptation.
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  Monitoring changes in global soil organic carbon stocks from space

  Soils are under threat globally, with declining soil productivity and soil health in many places. As a key indicator of soil functioning, soil organic carbon (SOC) is crucial for ensuring food, soil, water and energy security, together with biodiversity protection. While there is a global effort to map SOC stock and status, SOC is a dynamic soil property and can change rapidly as a function of land management and land use. Here, we introduce a semi-mechanistic model to monitor SOC stocks at a global scale, underpinned by one of the largest worldwide soil database to date. Our model generates a SOC stock baseline for the year 2001, which is then propagated through time by keeping track of annual landcover changes obtained from remote sensing products with loss and gain dynamics dependent on temperature and precipitation, which finally define the magnitude, rate and direction of the SOC changes. We estimated a global SOC stock in the top 30 cm of around 793 Pg with annual losses due to landcover change of 1.9 Pg SOC yr−1 from 2001 to 2020, 20% larger than the annual production-based emissions of the United States in 2018. The biggest losses were found in the tropic and sub-tropical regions, accounting for almost 50% of the total global loss. This is a considerable contribution to greenhouse gas emissions but it also has a direct impact on agricultural production with more than 16 million hectares yr−1 falling below critical SOC limits. The proposed modelling framework is flexible, allowing it to be updated as more remote sensing and soil data becomes available, offering a first-of-its-kind global spatio-temporal SOC stock assessment and monitoring system.
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  Global meta-analysis of the relationship between soil organic matter and crop yields

  Resilient, productive soils are necessary to sustainably intensify agriculture to increase yields while minimizing environmental harm. To conserve and regenerate productive soils, the need to maintain and build soil organic matter (SOM) has received considerable attention. Although SOM is considered key to soil health, its relationship with yield is contested because of local-scale differences in soils, climate, and farming systems. There is a need to quantify this relationship to set a general framework for how soil management could potentially contribute to the goals of sustainable intensification. We developed a quantitative model exploring how SOM relates to crop yield potential of maize and wheat in light of co-varying factors of management, soil type, and climate. We found that yields of these two crops are on average greater with higher concentrations of SOC (soil organic carbon). However, yield increases level off at ∼2 % SOC. Nevertheless, approximately two-thirds of the world's cultivated maize and wheat lands currently have SOC contents of less than 2 %. Using this regression relationship developed from published empirical data, we then estimated how an increase in SOC concentrations up to regionally specific targets could potentially help reduce reliance on nitrogen (N) fertilizer and help close global yield gaps. Potential N fertilizer reductions associated with increasing SOC amount to 7 % and 5 % of global N fertilizer inputs across maize and wheat fields, respectively. Potential yield increases of 10±11 % (mean  ±23±37 % for wheat amount to 32 % of the projected yield gap for maize and 60 % of that for wheat. Our analysis provides a global-level prediction for relating SOC to crop yields. Further work employing similar approaches to regional and local data, coupled with experimental work to disentangle causative effects of SOC on yield and vice versa, is needed to provide practical prescriptions to incentivize soil management for sustainable intensification.
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  A marginal abatement cost curve for climate change mitigation by additional carbon storage in French agricultural land

  Following the Paris agreement in 2015, the European Union (EU) set a carbon neutrality objective by 2050, and so did France. The French agricultural sector can contribute as a carbon sink through carbon storage in biomass and soil, in addition to reducing GHG emissions. The objective of this study is to quantitatively assess the additional storage potential and cost of a set of eight carbon-storing practices. The impacts of these agricultural practices on soil organic carbon storage and crop production are assessed at a very fine spatial scale, using crop and grassland models. The associated area base, GHG budget, and implementation costs are assessed and aggregated at the region level. The economic model BANCO uses this information to derive the marginal abatement cost curve for France and identify the combination of carbon storing practices that minimizes the total cost of achieving a given national net GHG mitigation target. We find that a substantial amount of carbon, 36.2 to 52.9 MtCO2e yr−1, can be stored in soil and biomass for reasonable carbon prices of 55 and 250 € tCO2e−1, respectively (corresponding to current and 2030 French carbon value for climate action), mainly by developing agroforestry and hedges, generalising cover crops, and introducing or extending temporary grasslands in crop sequences. This finding questions the 3–5 times lower target of 10 MtCO2e.yr−1 retained for the agricultural carbon sink by the French climate neutrality strategy. Overall, this would decrease total French GHG emissions by 9.2–13.8%, respectively (reference year 2019).