Multi-criteria spatialization of soil organic carbon sequestration potential from agricultural intensification in Senegal

Climatic Change

Valentin Bellassen

Raphaël J. Manlay

Jean-Pierre Chéry

Vincent Gitz

Assize Touré

Martial Bernoux

Jean-Luc Chotte

Clean Development Mechanism

Soil Carbon Sequestration

Soil Organic Carbon Change

Soil Organic Carbon Content

Soil Organic Carbon Stock

2010-01-01

10.1007/s10584-009-9635-x

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9635-x

On the eve of the 15th climate negotiations conference in Copenhagen, the pressure to assess all climate mitigation options is mounting. In this study, a bio-physic model and a socio-economic model were designed and coupled to assess the carbon sequestration potential of agricultural intensification in Senegal. The biophysical model is a multiple linear regression, calibrated and tested on a dataset of long-term agricultural trials established in West Africa. The socio-economic model integrates both financial and environmental costs related to considered practice changes. Both models are spatially explicit and the resulting spatial patterns were computed and displayed over Senegal with a geographic information system. The national potential from large-scale intensification was assessed at 0.65–0.83 MtC. With regards to local-scaled intensification as local projects, the most profitable areas were identified in agricultural expansion regions (especially Casamance), while the areas that meet the current financial additionality criteria of the Clean Development Mechanism were located in the northern part of the Peanut Basin. Using the current relevant mode of carbon valuation (Certified Emission Reductions), environmental benefits are small compared to financial benefits. This picture is radically changed if “avoided deforestation”, a likely consequence of agricultural intensification, is accounted for as the greenhouse gases sink capacity of projects increases by an average of a hundred-fold over Senegal.

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